MILWAUKEE (WKOW) -- Eight Republican presidential hopefuls will be on stage at the Fiserv Forum Wednesday night for a debate. But the elephant in the room could very likely be the absence of former President Donald Trump.
Trump announced Sunday he plans to skip the debate, and UW-Madison political science expert Mike Wagner said that could give the other candidates a chance to break through.
"Trump is giving up his guaranteed attention and giving some of these other folks an opportunity to get known a little bit," Wagner said. "[It] gives them at least an opportunity to start making some headway with conservative voters."
The candidates at Wednesday's debate will be Tim Scott, Ron DeSantis, Nikki Haley, Vivek Ramaswamy, Chris Christie, Mike Pence, Doug Burgum and Asa Hutchinson.
In previous elections, debates have been a chance for lesser known candidates to make a big splash and move up in the polls. That's still a possibility Wednesday, but Wagner said the opportunity now is smaller than a few decades ago.
"I think debates are probably less valuable than they used to be," he said. "But they still provide voters an opportunity to compare people side by side and see how they react to things in an environment that they don't really control."
Wagner said, unlike tightly controlled press events or curated social media, the debate will force candidates to think on their feet more.
"This is something that they don't get to pick what gets asked," he said "We will have to see how they respond to the pressure, and we'll have to see how they respond to attacks from each other."
Though debates are known for helping boost some candidates, they're also known for sinking the candidacies of others. Wagner said that's a distinct possibility in Milwaukee.
"No one is going to win the presidential nomination tomorrow, but some candidates might start their free fall into suspending their campaign tomorrow," he said. "We saw this with former Gov. [Scott] Walker, who was criticized after his performance in some debates and saw some of his fundraising dry up and saw him get out of the race."
Wagner said he could see a similar situation playing out this year if a candidate like DeSantis, who was originally seen as a possible frontrunner, has a poor performance.
Though Wednesday's debate is the first in the Republican presidential primary, there is still quite a bit of time before voters make any official decisions. The Iowa Caucus, which is the first contest for Republican candidates, will happen Jan. 15, 2024. Voters in Wisconsin will head to the polls on April 2.
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